Tecom (Taiwan) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 8.98

2321 Stock  TWD 15.65  0.10  0.64%   
Tecom's future price is the expected price of Tecom instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Tecom Co performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Tecom Backtesting, Tecom Valuation, Tecom Correlation, Tecom Hype Analysis, Tecom Volatility, Tecom History as well as Tecom Performance.
  
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Tecom Target Price Odds to finish below 8.98

The tendency of Tecom Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to NT$ 8.98  or more in 90 days
 15.65 90 days 8.98 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Tecom to drop to NT$ 8.98  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Tecom Co probability density function shows the probability of Tecom Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Tecom price to stay between NT$ 8.98  and its current price of NT$15.65 at the end of the 90-day period is about 68.94 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Tecom Co has a beta of -0.88. This suggests Additionally Tecom Co has an alpha of 0.2284, implying that it can generate a 0.23 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Tecom Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Tecom

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tecom. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.6315.5519.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.9812.9016.82
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
10.4214.3418.27
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
15.2915.7116.13
Details

Tecom Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Tecom is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Tecom's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Tecom Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Tecom within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.23
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.88
σ
Overall volatility
0.99
Ir
Information ratio 0.01

Tecom Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Tecom for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Tecom can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Tecom had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Tecom has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
Tecom Co has accumulated about 694.92 M in cash with (9.9 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.72.
Roughly 41.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

Tecom Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Tecom Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Tecom's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tecom's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding44.2 M

Tecom Technical Analysis

Tecom's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Tecom Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Tecom Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Tecom Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Tecom Predictive Forecast Models

Tecom's time-series forecasting models is one of many Tecom's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Tecom's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Tecom

Checking the ongoing alerts about Tecom for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Tecom help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Tecom had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Tecom has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
Tecom Co has accumulated about 694.92 M in cash with (9.9 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.72.
Roughly 41.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

Additional Tools for Tecom Stock Analysis

When running Tecom's price analysis, check to measure Tecom's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tecom is operating at the current time. Most of Tecom's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tecom's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tecom's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tecom to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.