COL Digital (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 39.76

300364 Stock   30.80  0.17  0.56%   
COL Digital's future price is the expected price of COL Digital instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of COL Digital Publishing performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out COL Digital Backtesting, COL Digital Valuation, COL Digital Correlation, COL Digital Hype Analysis, COL Digital Volatility, COL Digital History as well as COL Digital Performance.
  
Please specify COL Digital's target price for which you would like COL Digital odds to be computed.

COL Digital Target Price Odds to finish over 39.76

The tendency of COL Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over  39.76  or more in 90 days
 30.80 90 days 39.76 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of COL Digital to move over  39.76  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This COL Digital Publishing probability density function shows the probability of COL Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of COL Digital Publishing price to stay between its current price of  30.80  and  39.76  at the end of the 90-day period is about 16.61 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon COL Digital Publishing has a beta of -0.93. This suggests Moreover COL Digital Publishing has an alpha of 1.1587, implying that it can generate a 1.16 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   COL Digital Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for COL Digital

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as COL Digital Publishing. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.3530.8037.25
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.9423.3933.88
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
25.1931.6438.09
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.060.060.06
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as COL Digital. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against COL Digital's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, COL Digital's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in COL Digital Publishing.

COL Digital Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. COL Digital is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the COL Digital's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold COL Digital Publishing, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of COL Digital within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
1.16
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.93
σ
Overall volatility
5.72
Ir
Information ratio 0.15

COL Digital Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of COL Digital for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for COL Digital Publishing can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
COL Digital is way too risky over 90 days horizon
COL Digital appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
COL Digital generates negative cash flow from operations
About 24.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

COL Digital Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of COL Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential COL Digital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. COL Digital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding729.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments340.8 M

COL Digital Technical Analysis

COL Digital's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. COL Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of COL Digital Publishing. In general, you should focus on analyzing COL Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

COL Digital Predictive Forecast Models

COL Digital's time-series forecasting models is one of many COL Digital's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary COL Digital's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about COL Digital Publishing

Checking the ongoing alerts about COL Digital for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for COL Digital Publishing help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
COL Digital is way too risky over 90 days horizon
COL Digital appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
COL Digital generates negative cash flow from operations
About 24.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

Other Information on Investing in COL Stock

COL Digital financial ratios help investors to determine whether COL Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in COL with respect to the benefits of owning COL Digital security.