PPHE HOTEL (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 13.66
| 32P Stock | EUR 15.70 0.20 1.26% |
PPHE |
PPHE HOTEL Target Price Odds to finish below 13.66
The tendency of PPHE Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 13.66 or more in 90 days |
| 15.70 | 90 days | 13.66 | about 6.84 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of PPHE HOTEL to drop to € 13.66 or more in 90 days from now is about 6.84 (This PPHE HOTEL GROUP probability density function shows the probability of PPHE Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of PPHE HOTEL GROUP price to stay between € 13.66 and its current price of €15.7 at the end of the 90-day period is about 92.77 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon PPHE HOTEL has a beta of 0.13. This suggests as returns on the market go up, PPHE HOTEL average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding PPHE HOTEL GROUP will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally PPHE HOTEL GROUP has an alpha of 0.1048, implying that it can generate a 0.1 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). PPHE HOTEL Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for PPHE HOTEL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PPHE HOTEL GROUP. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.PPHE HOTEL Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. PPHE HOTEL is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the PPHE HOTEL's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold PPHE HOTEL GROUP, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of PPHE HOTEL within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.10 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.48 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0 |
PPHE HOTEL Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of PPHE Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential PPHE HOTEL's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PPHE HOTEL's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 42.5 M | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.032 | |
| Short Term Investments | 22 K |
PPHE HOTEL Technical Analysis
PPHE HOTEL's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. PPHE Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of PPHE HOTEL GROUP. In general, you should focus on analyzing PPHE Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
PPHE HOTEL Predictive Forecast Models
PPHE HOTEL's time-series forecasting models is one of many PPHE HOTEL's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary PPHE HOTEL's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards PPHE HOTEL in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, PPHE HOTEL's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from PPHE HOTEL options trading.
Other Information on Investing in PPHE Stock
PPHE HOTEL financial ratios help investors to determine whether PPHE Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in PPHE with respect to the benefits of owning PPHE HOTEL security.