GMI Technology (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 56.27
| 3312 Stock | TWD 59.20 0.10 0.17% |
GMI |
GMI Technology Target Price Odds to finish below 56.27
The tendency of GMI Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 56.27 or more in 90 days |
| 59.20 | 90 days | 56.27 | roughly 2.59 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of GMI Technology to drop to NT$ 56.27 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.59 (This GMI Technology probability density function shows the probability of GMI Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of GMI Technology price to stay between NT$ 56.27 and its current price of NT$59.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.04 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon GMI Technology has a beta of 0.16. This suggests as returns on the market go up, GMI Technology average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding GMI Technology will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally GMI Technology has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. GMI Technology Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for GMI Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GMI Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.GMI Technology Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. GMI Technology is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the GMI Technology's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold GMI Technology, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of GMI Technology within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.32 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.72 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
GMI Technology Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of GMI Technology for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for GMI Technology can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| GMI Technology generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company has NT$214.2 Million in debt which may indicate that it relies heavily on debt financing | |
| GMI Technology has accumulated about 520.99 M in cash with (432.08 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.72. | |
| Roughly 51.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
GMI Technology Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of GMI Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential GMI Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GMI Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 137.6 M |
GMI Technology Technical Analysis
GMI Technology's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. GMI Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of GMI Technology. In general, you should focus on analyzing GMI Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
GMI Technology Predictive Forecast Models
GMI Technology's time-series forecasting models is one of many GMI Technology's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary GMI Technology's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about GMI Technology
Checking the ongoing alerts about GMI Technology for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for GMI Technology help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| GMI Technology generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company has NT$214.2 Million in debt which may indicate that it relies heavily on debt financing | |
| GMI Technology has accumulated about 520.99 M in cash with (432.08 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.72. | |
| Roughly 51.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for GMI Stock Analysis
When running GMI Technology's price analysis, check to measure GMI Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy GMI Technology is operating at the current time. Most of GMI Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of GMI Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move GMI Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of GMI Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.