Swancor Holding (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 123.63
| 3708 Stock | TWD 91.60 1.50 1.61% |
Swancor |
Swancor Holding Target Price Odds to finish below 123.63
The tendency of Swancor Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under NT$ 123.63 after 90 days |
| 91.60 | 90 days | 123.63 | over 95.24 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Swancor Holding to stay under NT$ 123.63 after 90 days from now is over 95.24 (This Swancor Holding Co probability density function shows the probability of Swancor Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Swancor Holding price to stay between its current price of NT$ 91.60 and NT$ 123.63 at the end of the 90-day period is about 91.6 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Swancor Holding Co has a beta of -0.39. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Swancor Holding are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Swancor Holding Co is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Swancor Holding Co has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Swancor Holding Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Swancor Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Swancor Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Swancor Holding Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Swancor Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Swancor Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Swancor Holding Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Swancor Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.3 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
Swancor Holding Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Swancor Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Swancor Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Swancor Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 27.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Swancor Holding Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Swancor Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Swancor Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Swancor Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 92.8 M |
Swancor Holding Technical Analysis
Swancor Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Swancor Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Swancor Holding Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Swancor Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Swancor Holding Predictive Forecast Models
Swancor Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many Swancor Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Swancor Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Swancor Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about Swancor Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Swancor Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Swancor Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 27.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Swancor Stock Analysis
When running Swancor Holding's price analysis, check to measure Swancor Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Swancor Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Swancor Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Swancor Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Swancor Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Swancor Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.