GCS Holdings (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 77.91
| 4991 Stock | TWD 124.50 10.00 7.43% |
GCS |
GCS Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 77.91
The tendency of GCS Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 77.91 or more in 90 days |
| 124.50 | 90 days | 77.91 | about 50.64 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of GCS Holdings to drop to NT$ 77.91 or more in 90 days from now is about 50.64 (This GCS Holdings probability density function shows the probability of GCS Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of GCS Holdings price to stay between NT$ 77.91 and its current price of NT$124.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 46.63 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.13 . This suggests GCS Holdings market returns are correlated to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, GCS Holdings is expected to follow. Moreover GCS Holdings has an alpha of 1.9591, implying that it can generate a 1.96 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). GCS Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for GCS Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GCS Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.GCS Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. GCS Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the GCS Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold GCS Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of GCS Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.96 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 24.30 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.41 |
GCS Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of GCS Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for GCS Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| GCS Holdings is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| GCS Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.24 B. Net Loss for the year was (378.5 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 345.06 M. | |
| About 49.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
GCS Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of GCS Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential GCS Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GCS Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 109.3 M |
GCS Holdings Technical Analysis
GCS Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. GCS Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of GCS Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing GCS Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
GCS Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
GCS Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many GCS Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary GCS Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about GCS Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about GCS Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for GCS Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| GCS Holdings is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| GCS Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.24 B. Net Loss for the year was (378.5 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 345.06 M. | |
| About 49.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for GCS Stock Analysis
When running GCS Holdings' price analysis, check to measure GCS Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy GCS Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of GCS Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of GCS Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move GCS Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of GCS Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.