Graphic Packaging (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 25.22

4W8 Stock  EUR 27.94  0.19  0.68%   
Graphic Packaging's future price is the expected price of Graphic Packaging instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Graphic Packaging Holding performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Graphic Packaging Backtesting, Graphic Packaging Valuation, Graphic Packaging Correlation, Graphic Packaging Hype Analysis, Graphic Packaging Volatility, Graphic Packaging History as well as Graphic Packaging Performance.
  
Please specify Graphic Packaging's target price for which you would like Graphic Packaging odds to be computed.

Graphic Packaging Target Price Odds to finish below 25.22

The tendency of Graphic Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to € 25.22  or more in 90 days
 27.94 90 days 25.22 
roughly 2.36
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Graphic Packaging to drop to € 25.22  or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.36 (This Graphic Packaging Holding probability density function shows the probability of Graphic Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Graphic Packaging Holding price to stay between € 25.22  and its current price of €27.94 at the end of the 90-day period is about 87.93 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.25 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Graphic Packaging will likely underperform. Additionally Graphic Packaging Holding has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Graphic Packaging Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Graphic Packaging

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Graphic Packaging Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
26.3927.9429.49
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
25.9027.4529.00
Details

Graphic Packaging Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Graphic Packaging is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Graphic Packaging's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Graphic Packaging Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Graphic Packaging within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.02
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.25
σ
Overall volatility
0.83
Ir
Information ratio 0

Graphic Packaging Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Graphic Packaging for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Graphic Packaging Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Graphic Packaging has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds

Graphic Packaging Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Graphic Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Graphic Packaging's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Graphic Packaging's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding307.1 M

Graphic Packaging Technical Analysis

Graphic Packaging's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Graphic Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Graphic Packaging Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Graphic Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Graphic Packaging Predictive Forecast Models

Graphic Packaging's time-series forecasting models is one of many Graphic Packaging's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Graphic Packaging's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Graphic Packaging Holding

Checking the ongoing alerts about Graphic Packaging for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Graphic Packaging Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Graphic Packaging has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Graphic Stock

When determining whether Graphic Packaging Holding is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Graphic Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Graphic Packaging Holding Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Graphic Packaging Holding Stock:
Check out Graphic Packaging Backtesting, Graphic Packaging Valuation, Graphic Packaging Correlation, Graphic Packaging Hype Analysis, Graphic Packaging Volatility, Graphic Packaging History as well as Graphic Packaging Performance.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Graphic Packaging's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Graphic Packaging is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Graphic Packaging's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.