Chung Lien (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 41.74
| 5604 Stock | TWD 42.35 0.30 0.71% |
Chung |
Chung Lien Target Price Odds to finish below 41.74
The tendency of Chung Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 41.74 or more in 90 days |
| 42.35 | 90 days | 41.74 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Chung Lien to drop to NT$ 41.74 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Chung Lien Transportation probability density function shows the probability of Chung Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Chung Lien Transportation price to stay between NT$ 41.74 and its current price of NT$42.35 at the end of the 90-day period is about 34.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Chung Lien has a beta of 0.0265. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Chung Lien average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Chung Lien Transportation will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Chung Lien Transportation has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Chung Lien Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Chung Lien
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chung Lien Transportation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Chung Lien Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Chung Lien is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Chung Lien's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Chung Lien Transportation, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Chung Lien within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.41 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.27 |
Chung Lien Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Chung Lien for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Chung Lien Transportation can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Chung Lien generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 30.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Chung Lien Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Chung Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Chung Lien's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chung Lien's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 108.8 M |
Chung Lien Technical Analysis
Chung Lien's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Chung Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Chung Lien Transportation. In general, you should focus on analyzing Chung Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Chung Lien Predictive Forecast Models
Chung Lien's time-series forecasting models is one of many Chung Lien's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Chung Lien's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Chung Lien Transportation
Checking the ongoing alerts about Chung Lien for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Chung Lien Transportation help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Chung Lien generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 30.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Chung Stock Analysis
When running Chung Lien's price analysis, check to measure Chung Lien's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chung Lien is operating at the current time. Most of Chung Lien's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chung Lien's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chung Lien's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chung Lien to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.