Aurora Optoelectronics (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2.42
| 600666 Stock | 2.84 0.12 4.05% |
Aurora |
Aurora Optoelectronics Target Price Odds to finish over 2.42
The tendency of Aurora Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 2.42 in 90 days |
| 2.84 | 90 days | 2.42 | about 28.3 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aurora Optoelectronics to stay above 2.42 in 90 days from now is about 28.3 (This Aurora Optoelectronics Co probability density function shows the probability of Aurora Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aurora Optoelectronics price to stay between 2.42 and its current price of 2.84 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.47 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Aurora Optoelectronics Co has a beta of -0.45. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Aurora Optoelectronics are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Aurora Optoelectronics Co is likely to outperform the market. Moreover Aurora Optoelectronics Co has an alpha of 1.1888, implying that it can generate a 1.19 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Aurora Optoelectronics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aurora Optoelectronics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aurora Optoelectronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aurora Optoelectronics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aurora Optoelectronics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aurora Optoelectronics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aurora Optoelectronics Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aurora Optoelectronics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.45 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.54 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.21 |
Aurora Optoelectronics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aurora Optoelectronics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aurora Optoelectronics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aurora Optoelectronics is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Aurora Optoelectronics appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 327.91 M. Net Loss for the year was (675.28 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 36.38 M. | |
| Aurora Optoelectronics generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 42.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Aurora Optoelectronics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aurora Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aurora Optoelectronics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aurora Optoelectronics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.8 B |
Aurora Optoelectronics Technical Analysis
Aurora Optoelectronics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aurora Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aurora Optoelectronics Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aurora Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aurora Optoelectronics Predictive Forecast Models
Aurora Optoelectronics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Aurora Optoelectronics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aurora Optoelectronics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aurora Optoelectronics
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aurora Optoelectronics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aurora Optoelectronics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aurora Optoelectronics is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Aurora Optoelectronics appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 327.91 M. Net Loss for the year was (675.28 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 36.38 M. | |
| Aurora Optoelectronics generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 42.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in Aurora Stock
Aurora Optoelectronics financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aurora Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aurora with respect to the benefits of owning Aurora Optoelectronics security.