Sobute New (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.49

603916 Stock   8.24  0.21  2.49%   
Sobute New's future price is the expected price of Sobute New instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Sobute New Materials performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Sobute New Backtesting, Sobute New Valuation, Sobute New Correlation, Sobute New Hype Analysis, Sobute New Volatility, Sobute New History as well as Sobute New Performance.
  
Please specify Sobute New's target price for which you would like Sobute New odds to be computed.

Sobute New Target Price Odds to finish below 5.49

The tendency of Sobute Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to  5.49  or more in 90 days
 8.24 90 days 5.49 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Sobute New to drop to  5.49  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Sobute New Materials probability density function shows the probability of Sobute Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Sobute New Materials price to stay between  5.49  and its current price of 8.24 at the end of the 90-day period is about 80.13 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Sobute New has a beta of 0.0707. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Sobute New average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Sobute New Materials will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Sobute New Materials has an alpha of 0.2886, implying that it can generate a 0.29 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Sobute New Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Sobute New

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sobute New Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6.038.5711.11
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.498.0310.57
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
5.838.3610.90
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details

Sobute New Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Sobute New is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Sobute New's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Sobute New Materials, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Sobute New within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.29
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.07
σ
Overall volatility
0.66
Ir
Information ratio 0.07

Sobute New Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Sobute New for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Sobute New Materials can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Sobute New Materials is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 54.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

Sobute New Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Sobute Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Sobute New's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sobute New's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding420.3 M
Dividends Paid160.9 M
Shares Float198.5 M

Sobute New Technical Analysis

Sobute New's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Sobute Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Sobute New Materials. In general, you should focus on analyzing Sobute Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Sobute New Predictive Forecast Models

Sobute New's time-series forecasting models is one of many Sobute New's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Sobute New's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Sobute New Materials

Checking the ongoing alerts about Sobute New for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Sobute New Materials help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Sobute New Materials is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 54.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

Other Information on Investing in Sobute Stock

Sobute New financial ratios help investors to determine whether Sobute Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Sobute with respect to the benefits of owning Sobute New security.