Forest Water (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 36.53
| 8473 Stock | TWD 36.90 0.65 1.79% |
Forest |
Forest Water Target Price Odds to finish below 36.53
The tendency of Forest Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 36.53 or more in 90 days |
| 36.90 | 90 days | 36.53 | about 10.82 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Forest Water to drop to NT$ 36.53 or more in 90 days from now is about 10.82 (This Forest Water Environmental probability density function shows the probability of Forest Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Forest Water Environ price to stay between NT$ 36.53 and its current price of NT$36.9 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.85 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Forest Water Environmental has a beta of -0.0561. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Forest Water are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Forest Water Environmental is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Forest Water Environmental has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Forest Water Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Forest Water
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Forest Water Environ. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Forest Water Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Forest Water is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Forest Water's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Forest Water Environmental, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Forest Water within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.96 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.23 |
Forest Water Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Forest Water for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Forest Water Environ can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Forest Water Environ generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Forest Water Environ has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Forest Water Environmental has accumulated 3.03 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.68, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Forest Water Environ has a current ratio of 0.93, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Forest Water until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Forest Water's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Forest Water Environ sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Forest to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Forest Water's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 75.0% of Forest Water shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Forest Water Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Forest Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Forest Water's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Forest Water's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 144.2 M |
Forest Water Technical Analysis
Forest Water's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Forest Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Forest Water Environmental. In general, you should focus on analyzing Forest Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Forest Water Predictive Forecast Models
Forest Water's time-series forecasting models is one of many Forest Water's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Forest Water's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Forest Water Environ
Checking the ongoing alerts about Forest Water for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Forest Water Environ help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Forest Water Environ generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Forest Water Environ has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Forest Water Environmental has accumulated 3.03 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.68, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Forest Water Environ has a current ratio of 0.93, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Forest Water until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Forest Water's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Forest Water Environ sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Forest to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Forest Water's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 75.0% of Forest Water shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Forest Stock Analysis
When running Forest Water's price analysis, check to measure Forest Water's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Forest Water is operating at the current time. Most of Forest Water's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Forest Water's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Forest Water's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Forest Water to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.