Autohome ADR (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 22.42
| 8AHB Stock | EUR 25.20 0.20 0.79% |
Autohome |
Autohome ADR Target Price Odds to finish below 22.42
The tendency of Autohome Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 22.42 or more in 90 days |
| 25.20 | 90 days | 22.42 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Autohome ADR to drop to € 22.42 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Autohome ADR probability density function shows the probability of Autohome Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Autohome ADR price to stay between € 22.42 and its current price of €25.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 29.81 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Autohome ADR has a beta of 0.37. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Autohome ADR average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Autohome ADR will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Autohome ADR has an alpha of 0.1591, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Autohome ADR Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Autohome ADR
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Autohome ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Autohome ADR Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Autohome ADR is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Autohome ADR's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Autohome ADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Autohome ADR within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.37 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.06 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Autohome ADR Technical Analysis
Autohome ADR's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Autohome Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Autohome ADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing Autohome Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Autohome ADR Predictive Forecast Models
Autohome ADR's time-series forecasting models is one of many Autohome ADR's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Autohome ADR's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Autohome ADR in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Autohome ADR's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Autohome ADR options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Autohome Stock
Autohome ADR financial ratios help investors to determine whether Autohome Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Autohome with respect to the benefits of owning Autohome ADR security.