China Television (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 16.44
| 9928 Stock | TWD 18.00 0.10 0.56% |
China |
China Television Target Price Odds to finish below 16.44
The tendency of China Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 16.44 or more in 90 days |
| 18.00 | 90 days | 16.44 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of China Television to drop to NT$ 16.44 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This China Television Co probability density function shows the probability of China Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of China Television price to stay between NT$ 16.44 and its current price of NT$18.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.55 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon China Television has a beta of 0.13. This suggests as returns on the market go up, China Television average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding China Television Co will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally China Television Co has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. China Television Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for China Television
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Television. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.China Television Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. China Television is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the China Television's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold China Television Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of China Television within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.18 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.89 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
China Television Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of China Television for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for China Television can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| China Television generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| China Television has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| China Television Co has accumulated 750 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 472.7, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. China Television has a current ratio of 0.17, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist China Television until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, China Television's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like China Television sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for China to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about China Television's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 815.32 M. Net Loss for the year was (27.96 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 64.97 M. | |
| About 80.0% of China Television shares are owned by insiders or employees |
China Television Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of China Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential China Television's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Television's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 60.7 M |
China Television Technical Analysis
China Television's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. China Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of China Television Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing China Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
China Television Predictive Forecast Models
China Television's time-series forecasting models is one of many China Television's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary China Television's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about China Television
Checking the ongoing alerts about China Television for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for China Television help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| China Television generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| China Television has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| China Television Co has accumulated 750 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 472.7, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. China Television has a current ratio of 0.17, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist China Television until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, China Television's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like China Television sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for China to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about China Television's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 815.32 M. Net Loss for the year was (27.96 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 64.97 M. | |
| About 80.0% of China Television shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for China Stock Analysis
When running China Television's price analysis, check to measure China Television's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Television is operating at the current time. Most of China Television's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Television's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Television's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Television to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.