Allied Gold Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.07
| AAUC Stock | 3.65 0.17 4.89% |
Allied |
Allied Gold Target Price Odds to finish below 3.07
The tendency of Allied Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 3.07 or more in 90 days |
| 3.65 | 90 days | 3.07 | about 11.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Allied Gold to drop to 3.07 or more in 90 days from now is about 11.0 (This Allied Gold probability density function shows the probability of Allied Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Allied Gold price to stay between 3.07 and its current price of 3.65 at the end of the 90-day period is about 71.19 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Allied Gold has a beta of 0.51. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Allied Gold average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Allied Gold will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Allied Gold has an alpha of 0.2828, implying that it can generate a 0.28 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Allied Gold Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Allied Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allied Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Allied Gold Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Allied Gold is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Allied Gold's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Allied Gold, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Allied Gold within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.28 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.51 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Allied Gold Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Allied Gold for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Allied Gold can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Allied Gold had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 655.69 M. Net Loss for the year was (191.54 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| About 26.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: ALLIED GOLD ANNOUNCES 175 MILLION STREAMING AGREEMENT WITH WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS INTERNATIONAL SECURING FINANCING FOR ITS KURMUK PROJECT - Barchart |
Allied Gold Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Allied Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Allied Gold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Allied Gold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 203.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 158.6 M |
Allied Gold Technical Analysis
Allied Gold's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Allied Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Allied Gold. In general, you should focus on analyzing Allied Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Allied Gold Predictive Forecast Models
Allied Gold's time-series forecasting models is one of many Allied Gold's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Allied Gold's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Allied Gold
Checking the ongoing alerts about Allied Gold for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Allied Gold help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Allied Gold had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 655.69 M. Net Loss for the year was (191.54 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| About 26.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: ALLIED GOLD ANNOUNCES 175 MILLION STREAMING AGREEMENT WITH WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS INTERNATIONAL SECURING FINANCING FOR ITS KURMUK PROJECT - Barchart |
Other Information on Investing in Allied Stock
Allied Gold financial ratios help investors to determine whether Allied Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Allied with respect to the benefits of owning Allied Gold security.