ABSA Bank (South Africa) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 73,510
| ABSP Stock | 88,006 1,006 1.16% |
ABSA |
ABSA Bank Target Price Odds to finish below 73,510
The tendency of ABSA Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 88,006 | 90 days | 88,006 | over 95.53 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ABSA Bank to move below current price in 90 days from now is over 95.53 (This ABSA Bank Limited probability density function shows the probability of ABSA Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ABSA Bank Limited has a beta of -0.0812. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding ABSA Bank are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, ABSA Bank Limited is likely to outperform the market. Additionally ABSA Bank Limited has an alpha of 0.0979, implying that it can generate a 0.0979 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ABSA Bank Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ABSA Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ABSA Bank Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ABSA Bank Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ABSA Bank is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ABSA Bank's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ABSA Bank Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ABSA Bank within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2,365 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
ABSA Bank Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ABSA Bank for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ABSA Bank Limited can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ABSA Bank generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 53.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
ABSA Bank Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ABSA Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ABSA Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ABSA Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
ABSA Bank Technical Analysis
ABSA Bank's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ABSA Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ABSA Bank Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing ABSA Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ABSA Bank Predictive Forecast Models
ABSA Bank's time-series forecasting models is one of many ABSA Bank's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ABSA Bank's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ABSA Bank Limited
Checking the ongoing alerts about ABSA Bank for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ABSA Bank Limited help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ABSA Bank generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 53.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for ABSA Stock Analysis
When running ABSA Bank's price analysis, check to measure ABSA Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ABSA Bank is operating at the current time. Most of ABSA Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ABSA Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ABSA Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ABSA Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.