Air Canada Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 16.67
| AC Stock | CAD 21.96 0.24 1.10% |
Air |
Air Canada Target Price Odds to finish below 16.67
The tendency of Air Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to C$ 16.67 or more in 90 days |
| 21.96 | 90 days | 16.67 | about 11.8 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Air Canada to drop to C$ 16.67 or more in 90 days from now is about 11.8 (This Air Canada probability density function shows the probability of Air Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Air Canada price to stay between C$ 16.67 and its current price of C$21.96 at the end of the 90-day period is about 50.06 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Air Canada has a beta of 0.35. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Air Canada average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Air Canada will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Air Canada has an alpha of 0.4418, implying that it can generate a 0.44 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Air Canada Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Air Canada
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Air Canada. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Air Canada's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Air Canada Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Air Canada is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Air Canada's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Air Canada, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Air Canada within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.44 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.35 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.15 |
Air Canada Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Air Canada for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Air Canada can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Air Canada is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Canada government sells its Air Canada stake, Globe and Mail reports By Reuters - Investing.com |
Air Canada Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Air Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Air Canada's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Air Canada's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 376 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.6 B |
Air Canada Technical Analysis
Air Canada's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Air Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Air Canada. In general, you should focus on analyzing Air Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Air Canada Predictive Forecast Models
Air Canada's time-series forecasting models is one of many Air Canada's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Air Canada's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Air Canada
Checking the ongoing alerts about Air Canada for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Air Canada help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Air Canada is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Canada government sells its Air Canada stake, Globe and Mail reports By Reuters - Investing.com |
Other Information on Investing in Air Stock
Air Canada financial ratios help investors to determine whether Air Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Air with respect to the benefits of owning Air Canada security.