Aecom Technology Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 116.97
| ACM Stock | USD 112.47 0.04 0.04% |
Aecom |
Aecom Technology Target Price Odds to finish below 116.97
The tendency of Aecom Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 116.97 after 90 days |
| 112.47 | 90 days | 116.97 | over 95.68 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aecom Technology to stay under $ 116.97 after 90 days from now is over 95.68 (This Aecom Technology probability density function shows the probability of Aecom Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aecom Technology price to stay between its current price of $ 112.47 and $ 116.97 at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.64 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.13 . This suggests Aecom Technology market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Aecom Technology is expected to follow. Additionally Aecom Technology has an alpha of 0.1379, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Aecom Technology Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Aecom Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aecom Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aecom Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aecom Technology Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aecom Technology is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aecom Technology's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aecom Technology, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aecom Technology within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.90 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Aecom Technology Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aecom Technology for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aecom Technology can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 18th of October 2024 Aecom Technology paid $ 0.22 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: AECOM appointed by Thames Water to new 400 million professional |
Aecom Technology Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aecom Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aecom Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aecom Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 136.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 B |
Aecom Technology Technical Analysis
Aecom Technology's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aecom Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aecom Technology. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aecom Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aecom Technology Predictive Forecast Models
Aecom Technology's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aecom Technology's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aecom Technology's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aecom Technology
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aecom Technology for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aecom Technology help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 18th of October 2024 Aecom Technology paid $ 0.22 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: AECOM appointed by Thames Water to new 400 million professional |
Check out Aecom Technology Backtesting, Aecom Technology Valuation, Aecom Technology Correlation, Aecom Technology Hype Analysis, Aecom Technology Volatility, Aecom Technology History as well as Aecom Technology Performance. To learn how to invest in Aecom Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aecom Technology guide.You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Is Construction & Engineering space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aecom Technology. If investors know Aecom will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aecom Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.99) | Earnings Share 3.71 | Revenue Per Share 116.019 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.133 | Return On Assets 0.0476 |
The market value of Aecom Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aecom that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aecom Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aecom Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aecom Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aecom Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aecom Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aecom Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aecom Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.