Addus Homecare Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 129.56
| ADUS Stock | USD 120.90 2.06 1.68% |
Closest to current price Addus long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Addus |
Addus HomeCare Target Price Odds to finish over 129.56
The tendency of Addus Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 129.56 or more in 90 days |
| 120.90 | 90 days | 129.56 | about 29.15 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Addus HomeCare to move over $ 129.56 or more in 90 days from now is about 29.15 (This Addus HomeCare probability density function shows the probability of Addus Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Addus HomeCare price to stay between its current price of $ 120.90 and $ 129.56 at the end of the 90-day period is about 64.39 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.07 . This suggests Addus HomeCare market returns are related to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Addus HomeCare is expected to follow. Additionally Addus HomeCare has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Addus HomeCare Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Addus HomeCare
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Addus HomeCare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Addus HomeCare's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Addus HomeCare Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Addus HomeCare is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Addus HomeCare's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Addus HomeCare, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Addus HomeCare within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.19 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Addus HomeCare Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Addus HomeCare for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Addus HomeCare can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Addus HomeCare generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Addus HomeCare has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Disposition of 2250 shares by Roberton Stevenson of Addus HomeCare at 121.0 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Addus HomeCare Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Addus Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Addus HomeCare's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Addus HomeCare's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 64.8 M |
Addus HomeCare Technical Analysis
Addus HomeCare's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Addus Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Addus HomeCare. In general, you should focus on analyzing Addus Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Addus HomeCare Predictive Forecast Models
Addus HomeCare's time-series forecasting models is one of many Addus HomeCare's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Addus HomeCare's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Addus HomeCare
Checking the ongoing alerts about Addus HomeCare for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Addus HomeCare help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Addus HomeCare generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Addus HomeCare has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Disposition of 2250 shares by Roberton Stevenson of Addus HomeCare at 121.0 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Additional Tools for Addus Stock Analysis
When running Addus HomeCare's price analysis, check to measure Addus HomeCare's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Addus HomeCare is operating at the current time. Most of Addus HomeCare's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Addus HomeCare's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Addus HomeCare's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Addus HomeCare to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.