Agnico Eagle (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 65.85
| AE9 Stock | EUR 75.64 0.66 0.88% |
Agnico |
Agnico Eagle Target Price Odds to finish below 65.85
The tendency of Agnico Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 65.85 or more in 90 days |
| 75.64 | 90 days | 65.85 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Agnico Eagle to drop to € 65.85 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Agnico Eagle Mines probability density function shows the probability of Agnico Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Agnico Eagle Mines price to stay between € 65.85 and its current price of €75.64 at the end of the 90-day period is about 35.85 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Agnico Eagle has a beta of 0.15. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Agnico Eagle average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Agnico Eagle Mines will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Agnico Eagle Mines has an alpha of 0.0409, implying that it can generate a 0.0409 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Agnico Eagle Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Agnico Eagle
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agnico Eagle Mines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Agnico Eagle Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Agnico Eagle is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Agnico Eagle's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Agnico Eagle Mines, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Agnico Eagle within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.53 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Agnico Eagle Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Agnico Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Agnico Eagle's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Agnico Eagle's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 456.5 M |
Agnico Eagle Technical Analysis
Agnico Eagle's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Agnico Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Agnico Eagle Mines. In general, you should focus on analyzing Agnico Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Agnico Eagle Predictive Forecast Models
Agnico Eagle's time-series forecasting models is one of many Agnico Eagle's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Agnico Eagle's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Agnico Eagle in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Agnico Eagle's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Agnico Eagle options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Agnico Stock
When determining whether Agnico Eagle Mines is a strong investment it is important to analyze Agnico Eagle's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Agnico Eagle's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Agnico Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Agnico Eagle Backtesting, Agnico Eagle Valuation, Agnico Eagle Correlation, Agnico Eagle Hype Analysis, Agnico Eagle Volatility, Agnico Eagle History as well as Agnico Eagle Performance. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.