American Eagle (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 19.87
| AFG Stock | 17.50 0.40 2.34% |
American |
American Eagle Target Price Odds to finish over 19.87
The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 19.87 or more in 90 days |
| 17.50 | 90 days | 19.87 | roughly 2.22 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Eagle to move over 19.87 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.22 (This American Eagle Outfitters probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Eagle Outfitters price to stay between its current price of 17.50 and 19.87 at the end of the 90-day period is about 69.19 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon American Eagle has a beta of 0.66. This suggests as returns on the market go up, American Eagle average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American Eagle Outfitters will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally American Eagle Outfitters has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. American Eagle Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for American Eagle
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Eagle Outfitters. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Eagle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Eagle Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Eagle is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Eagle's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Eagle Outfitters, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Eagle within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.66 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.92 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
American Eagle Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Eagle for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Eagle Outfitters can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| American Eagle generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
American Eagle Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American Eagle's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Eagle's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 168.7 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 113.9 M |
American Eagle Technical Analysis
American Eagle's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Eagle Outfitters. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
American Eagle Predictive Forecast Models
American Eagle's time-series forecasting models is one of many American Eagle's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American Eagle's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about American Eagle Outfitters
Checking the ongoing alerts about American Eagle for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Eagle Outfitters help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| American Eagle generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Additional Tools for American Stock Analysis
When running American Eagle's price analysis, check to measure American Eagle's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Eagle is operating at the current time. Most of American Eagle's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Eagle's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Eagle's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Eagle to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.