Afya Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 17.77
| AFYA Stock | USD 15.50 0.26 1.71% |
Afya |
Afya Target Price Odds to finish below 17.77
The tendency of Afya Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 17.77 after 90 days |
| 15.50 | 90 days | 17.77 | roughly 96.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Afya to stay under $ 17.77 after 90 days from now is roughly 96.0 (This Afya probability density function shows the probability of Afya Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Afya price to stay between its current price of $ 15.50 and $ 17.77 at the end of the 90-day period is about 90.29 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Afya has a beta of 0.65. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Afya average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Afya will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Afya has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Afya Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Afya
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Afya. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Afya's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Afya Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Afya is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Afya's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Afya, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Afya within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.65 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.68 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Afya Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Afya for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Afya can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Afya generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 84.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Afya to Expand Medical Education Reach With FUNIC Acquisition |
Afya Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Afya Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Afya's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Afya's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 90.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 553 M |
Afya Technical Analysis
Afya's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Afya Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Afya. In general, you should focus on analyzing Afya Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Afya Predictive Forecast Models
Afya's time-series forecasting models is one of many Afya's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Afya's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Afya
Checking the ongoing alerts about Afya for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Afya help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Afya generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 84.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Afya to Expand Medical Education Reach With FUNIC Acquisition |
Check out Afya Backtesting, Afya Valuation, Afya Correlation, Afya Hype Analysis, Afya Volatility, Afya History as well as Afya Performance. For information on how to trade Afya Stock refer to our How to Trade Afya Stock guide.You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Is Diversified Consumer Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Afya. If investors know Afya will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Afya listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.891 | Earnings Share 1.04 | Revenue Per Share 34.119 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.137 | Return On Assets 0.0711 |
The market value of Afya is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Afya that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Afya's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Afya's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Afya's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Afya's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Afya's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Afya is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Afya's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.