Alger Small Cap Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 19.25
| AGOZX Fund | USD 21.78 0.15 0.68% |
Alger |
Alger Small Target Price Odds to finish below 19.25
The tendency of Alger Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 19.25 or more in 90 days |
| 21.78 | 90 days | 19.25 | about 16.53 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alger Small to drop to $ 19.25 or more in 90 days from now is about 16.53 (This Alger Small Cap probability density function shows the probability of Alger Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alger Small Cap price to stay between $ 19.25 and its current price of $21.78 at the end of the 90-day period is about 68.79 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the mutual fund has the beta coefficient of 1.54 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Alger Small will likely underperform. Additionally Alger Small Cap has an alpha of 0.1159, implying that it can generate a 0.12 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Alger Small Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alger Small
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alger Small Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alger Small Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alger Small is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alger Small's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alger Small Cap, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alger Small within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.54 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Alger Small Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alger Small for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alger Small Cap can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund generated three year return of -5.0% | |
| Alger Small Cap holds about 6.62% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Alger Small Technical Analysis
Alger Small's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alger Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alger Small Cap. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alger Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alger Small Predictive Forecast Models
Alger Small's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alger Small's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alger Small's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alger Small Cap
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alger Small for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alger Small Cap help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund generated three year return of -5.0% | |
| Alger Small Cap holds about 6.62% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Alger Mutual Fund
Alger Small financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alger Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alger with respect to the benefits of owning Alger Small security.
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