AGRANA Beteiligungs (Austria) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 9.54
| AGR Stock | EUR 11.00 0.25 2.33% |
AGRANA |
AGRANA Beteiligungs Target Price Odds to finish below 9.54
The tendency of AGRANA Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 9.54 or more in 90 days |
| 11.00 | 90 days | 9.54 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AGRANA Beteiligungs to drop to € 9.54 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This AGRANA Beteiligungs Aktiengesellschaft probability density function shows the probability of AGRANA Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AGRANA Beteiligungs price to stay between € 9.54 and its current price of €11.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 64.75 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon AGRANA Beteiligungs Aktiengesellschaft has a beta of -0.12. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding AGRANA Beteiligungs are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, AGRANA Beteiligungs Aktiengesellschaft is likely to outperform the market. Additionally AGRANA Beteiligungs Aktiengesellschaft has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. AGRANA Beteiligungs Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AGRANA Beteiligungs
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AGRANA Beteiligungs. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AGRANA Beteiligungs Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AGRANA Beteiligungs is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AGRANA Beteiligungs' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AGRANA Beteiligungs Aktiengesellschaft, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AGRANA Beteiligungs within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.29 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
AGRANA Beteiligungs Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AGRANA Beteiligungs for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AGRANA Beteiligungs can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AGRANA Beteiligungs generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| AGRANA Beteiligungs has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 2.9 B. Net Loss for the year was (12.61 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 833.45 M. | |
| About 81.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
AGRANA Beteiligungs Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AGRANA Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AGRANA Beteiligungs' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AGRANA Beteiligungs' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 62.5 M |
AGRANA Beteiligungs Technical Analysis
AGRANA Beteiligungs' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AGRANA Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AGRANA Beteiligungs Aktiengesellschaft. In general, you should focus on analyzing AGRANA Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AGRANA Beteiligungs Predictive Forecast Models
AGRANA Beteiligungs' time-series forecasting models is one of many AGRANA Beteiligungs' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AGRANA Beteiligungs' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AGRANA Beteiligungs
Checking the ongoing alerts about AGRANA Beteiligungs for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AGRANA Beteiligungs help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AGRANA Beteiligungs generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| AGRANA Beteiligungs has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 2.9 B. Net Loss for the year was (12.61 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 833.45 M. | |
| About 81.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in AGRANA Stock
AGRANA Beteiligungs financial ratios help investors to determine whether AGRANA Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AGRANA with respect to the benefits of owning AGRANA Beteiligungs security.