ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 18.58
| AHD Stock | EUR 5.05 0.00 0.00% |
ASHFORD |
ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST Target Price Odds to finish below 18.58
The tendency of ASHFORD Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 18.58 after 90 days |
| 5.05 | 90 days | 18.58 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST to stay under € 18.58 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST probability density function shows the probability of ASHFORD Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST price to stay between its current price of € 5.05 and € 18.58 at the end of the 90-day period is about 80.2 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST has a beta of 0.29. This suggests as returns on the market go up, ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.78 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.19 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.24 |
ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.17 B. Net Loss for the year was (180.16 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 114.63 M. |
ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ASHFORD Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Shares Float | 32 M |
ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST Technical Analysis
ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ASHFORD Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST. In general, you should focus on analyzing ASHFORD Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST Predictive Forecast Models
ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST's time-series forecasting models is one of many ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST
Checking the ongoing alerts about ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.17 B. Net Loss for the year was (180.16 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 114.63 M. |
Other Information on Investing in ASHFORD Stock
ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST financial ratios help investors to determine whether ASHFORD Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ASHFORD with respect to the benefits of owning ASHFORD HOSPITTRUST security.