Alcadon Group (Sweden) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 27.73
| ALCA Stock | SEK 28.20 0.20 0.71% |
Alcadon |
Alcadon Group Target Price Odds to finish below 27.73
The tendency of Alcadon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to kr 27.73 or more in 90 days |
| 28.20 | 90 days | 27.73 | about 13.36 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcadon Group to drop to kr 27.73 or more in 90 days from now is about 13.36 (This Alcadon Group AB probability density function shows the probability of Alcadon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alcadon Group AB price to stay between kr 27.73 and its current price of kr28.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.9 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Alcadon Group has a beta of 0.33. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Alcadon Group average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alcadon Group AB will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alcadon Group AB has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Alcadon Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alcadon Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alcadon Group AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alcadon Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alcadon Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alcadon Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alcadon Group AB, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alcadon Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.57 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.60 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.22 |
Alcadon Group Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alcadon Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alcadon Group AB can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alcadon Group AB generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alcadon Group AB has accumulated 111.4 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.66, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Alcadon Group AB has a current ratio of 0.77, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Alcadon Group until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Alcadon Group's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Alcadon Group AB sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Alcadon to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Alcadon Group's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 39.0% of Alcadon Group shares are held by company insiders |
Alcadon Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alcadon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alcadon Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alcadon Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 18.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 28.4 M |
Alcadon Group Technical Analysis
Alcadon Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alcadon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alcadon Group AB. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alcadon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alcadon Group Predictive Forecast Models
Alcadon Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alcadon Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alcadon Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alcadon Group AB
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alcadon Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alcadon Group AB help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alcadon Group AB generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alcadon Group AB has accumulated 111.4 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.66, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Alcadon Group AB has a current ratio of 0.77, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Alcadon Group until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Alcadon Group's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Alcadon Group AB sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Alcadon to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Alcadon Group's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 39.0% of Alcadon Group shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Alcadon Stock Analysis
When running Alcadon Group's price analysis, check to measure Alcadon Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alcadon Group is operating at the current time. Most of Alcadon Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alcadon Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alcadon Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alcadon Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.