Alarko Carrier (Turkey) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 451.23
| ALCAR Stock | TRY 1,010 18.00 1.75% |
Alarko |
Alarko Carrier Target Price Odds to finish below 451.23
The tendency of Alarko Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 451.23 or more in 90 days |
| 1,010 | 90 days | 451.23 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alarko Carrier to drop to 451.23 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Alarko Carrier Sanayi probability density function shows the probability of Alarko Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alarko Carrier Sanayi price to stay between 451.23 and its current price of 1010.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 69.42 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Alarko Carrier has a beta of 0.5. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Alarko Carrier average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alarko Carrier Sanayi will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alarko Carrier Sanayi has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Alarko Carrier Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alarko Carrier
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alarko Carrier Sanayi. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alarko Carrier Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alarko Carrier is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alarko Carrier's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alarko Carrier Sanayi, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alarko Carrier within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.28 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.50 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 66.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
Alarko Carrier Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alarko Carrier for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alarko Carrier Sanayi can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alarko Carrier generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alarko Carrier Sanayi has accumulated about 79.24 M in cash with (136.08 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 7.34. | |
| Roughly 84.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Alarko Carrier Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alarko Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alarko Carrier's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alarko Carrier's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.8 M |
Alarko Carrier Technical Analysis
Alarko Carrier's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alarko Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alarko Carrier Sanayi. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alarko Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alarko Carrier Predictive Forecast Models
Alarko Carrier's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alarko Carrier's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alarko Carrier's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alarko Carrier Sanayi
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alarko Carrier for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alarko Carrier Sanayi help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alarko Carrier generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alarko Carrier Sanayi has accumulated about 79.24 M in cash with (136.08 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 7.34. | |
| Roughly 84.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Alarko Stock
Alarko Carrier financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alarko Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alarko with respect to the benefits of owning Alarko Carrier security.