Alaska Air (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 43.75
| ALK Stock | 49.77 0.25 0.50% |
Alaska |
Alaska Air Target Price Odds to finish over 43.75
The tendency of Alaska Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 43.75 in 90 days |
| 49.77 | 90 days | 43.75 | about 37.23 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alaska Air to stay above 43.75 in 90 days from now is about 37.23 (This Alaska Air Group probability density function shows the probability of Alaska Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alaska Air Group price to stay between 43.75 and its current price of 49.77 at the end of the 90-day period is about 28.94 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Alaska Air Group has a beta of -0.29. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Alaska Air are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Alaska Air Group is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Alaska Air Group has an alpha of 0.7132, implying that it can generate a 0.71 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Alaska Air Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Alaska Air
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alaska Air Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alaska Air's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alaska Air Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alaska Air is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alaska Air's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alaska Air Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alaska Air within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.71 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.68 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.24 |
Alaska Air Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alaska Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alaska Air's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alaska Air's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 127.5 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 276 M |
Alaska Air Technical Analysis
Alaska Air's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alaska Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alaska Air Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alaska Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alaska Air Predictive Forecast Models
Alaska Air's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alaska Air's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alaska Air's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Alaska Air in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Alaska Air's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Alaska Air options trading.
Additional Tools for Alaska Stock Analysis
When running Alaska Air's price analysis, check to measure Alaska Air's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alaska Air is operating at the current time. Most of Alaska Air's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alaska Air's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alaska Air's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alaska Air to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.