Fundo De (Brazil) Odds of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 577.92
| ALMI11 Fund | BRL 591.01 5.01 0.85% |
Fundo |
Fundo De Target Price Odds to finish below 577.92
The tendency of Fundo Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 577.92 or more in 90 days |
| 591.01 | 90 days | 577.92 | about 62.63 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Fundo De to drop to R$ 577.92 or more in 90 days from now is about 62.63 (This Fundo De Investimento probability density function shows the probability of Fundo Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Fundo De Investimento price to stay between R$ 577.92 and its current price of R$591.01 at the end of the 90-day period is about 30.64 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Fundo De has a beta of 0.28. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Fundo De average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Fundo De Investimento will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Fundo De Investimento has an alpha of 0.0557, implying that it can generate a 0.0557 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Fundo De Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Fundo De
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fundo De Investimento. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Fundo De Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Fundo De is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Fundo De's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Fundo De Investimento, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Fundo De within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.28 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.89 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Fundo De Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Fundo Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Fundo De's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fundo De's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Fundo De Technical Analysis
Fundo De's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Fundo Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Fundo De Investimento. In general, you should focus on analyzing Fundo Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Fundo De Predictive Forecast Models
Fundo De's time-series forecasting models is one of many Fundo De's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Fundo De's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Fundo De in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Fundo De's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Fundo De options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Fundo Fund
Fundo De financial ratios help investors to determine whether Fundo Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Fundo with respect to the benefits of owning Fundo De security.
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