Arab Aluminum (Egypt) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 10.81
| ALUM Stock | 14.78 0.21 1.40% |
Arab |
Arab Aluminum Target Price Odds to finish over 10.81
The tendency of Arab Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 10.81 in 90 days |
| 14.78 | 90 days | 10.81 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Arab Aluminum to stay above 10.81 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Arab Aluminum probability density function shows the probability of Arab Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Arab Aluminum price to stay between 10.81 and its current price of 14.78 at the end of the 90-day period is about 85.07 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Arab Aluminum has a beta of -0.15. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Arab Aluminum are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Arab Aluminum is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Arab Aluminum has an alpha of 0.2488, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Arab Aluminum Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Arab Aluminum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arab Aluminum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Arab Aluminum Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Arab Aluminum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Arab Aluminum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Arab Aluminum, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Arab Aluminum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.75 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Arab Aluminum Technical Analysis
Arab Aluminum's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Arab Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Arab Aluminum. In general, you should focus on analyzing Arab Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Arab Aluminum Predictive Forecast Models
Arab Aluminum's time-series forecasting models is one of many Arab Aluminum's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Arab Aluminum's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Arab Aluminum in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Arab Aluminum's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Arab Aluminum options trading.