Sumber Alfaria (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2890.0

AMRT Stock  IDR 2,960  10.00  0.34%   
Sumber Alfaria's future price is the expected price of Sumber Alfaria instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Sumber Alfaria Backtesting, Sumber Alfaria Valuation, Sumber Alfaria Correlation, Sumber Alfaria Hype Analysis, Sumber Alfaria Volatility, Sumber Alfaria History as well as Sumber Alfaria Performance.
  
Please specify Sumber Alfaria's target price for which you would like Sumber Alfaria odds to be computed.

Sumber Alfaria Target Price Odds to finish over 2890.0

The tendency of Sumber Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above  2,890  in 90 days
 2,960 90 days 2,890 
about 91.74
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Sumber Alfaria to stay above  2,890  in 90 days from now is about 91.74 (This Sumber Alfaria Trijaya probability density function shows the probability of Sumber Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya price to stay between  2,890  and its current price of 2960.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.33 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Sumber Alfaria Trijaya has a beta of -0.28. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Sumber Alfaria are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Sumber Alfaria Trijaya is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Sumber Alfaria Trijaya has an alpha of 0.001, implying that it can generate a 0.001032 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Sumber Alfaria Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Sumber Alfaria

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sumber Alfaria Trijaya. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2,9582,9602,962
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2,5892,5913,256
Details

Sumber Alfaria Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Sumber Alfaria is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Sumber Alfaria's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Sumber Alfaria Trijaya, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Sumber Alfaria within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.28
σ
Overall volatility
185.90
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Sumber Alfaria Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Sumber Alfaria for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Sumber Alfaria Trijaya can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Sumber Alfaria generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 54.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Sumber Alfaria Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Sumber Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Sumber Alfaria's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sumber Alfaria's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding41.5 B
Cash And Short Term Investments3.3 T

Sumber Alfaria Technical Analysis

Sumber Alfaria's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Sumber Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya. In general, you should focus on analyzing Sumber Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Sumber Alfaria Predictive Forecast Models

Sumber Alfaria's time-series forecasting models is one of many Sumber Alfaria's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Sumber Alfaria's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Sumber Alfaria Trijaya

Checking the ongoing alerts about Sumber Alfaria for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Sumber Alfaria Trijaya help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Sumber Alfaria generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 54.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Other Information on Investing in Sumber Stock

Sumber Alfaria financial ratios help investors to determine whether Sumber Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Sumber with respect to the benefits of owning Sumber Alfaria security.