GAEC Educacao (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 6.32
| ANIM3 Stock | BRL 2.07 0.05 2.48% |
GAEC |
GAEC Educacao Target Price Odds to finish over 6.32
The tendency of GAEC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over R$ 6.32 or more in 90 days |
| 2.07 | 90 days | 6.32 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of GAEC Educacao to move over R$ 6.32 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This GAEC Educacao SA probability density function shows the probability of GAEC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of GAEC Educacao SA price to stay between its current price of R$ 2.07 and R$ 6.32 at the end of the 90-day period is about 90.53 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon GAEC Educacao has a beta of 0.44. This suggests as returns on the market go up, GAEC Educacao average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding GAEC Educacao SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally GAEC Educacao SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. GAEC Educacao Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for GAEC Educacao
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GAEC Educacao SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.GAEC Educacao Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. GAEC Educacao is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the GAEC Educacao's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold GAEC Educacao SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of GAEC Educacao within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.62 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.44 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
GAEC Educacao Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of GAEC Educacao for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for GAEC Educacao SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| GAEC Educacao SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| GAEC Educacao SA has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the revenue of 2.65 B. Net Loss for the year was (87.67 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.43 B. | |
| About 30.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
GAEC Educacao Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of GAEC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential GAEC Educacao's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GAEC Educacao's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 319.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 515.3 M |
GAEC Educacao Technical Analysis
GAEC Educacao's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. GAEC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of GAEC Educacao SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing GAEC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
GAEC Educacao Predictive Forecast Models
GAEC Educacao's time-series forecasting models is one of many GAEC Educacao's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary GAEC Educacao's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about GAEC Educacao SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about GAEC Educacao for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for GAEC Educacao SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| GAEC Educacao SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| GAEC Educacao SA has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the revenue of 2.65 B. Net Loss for the year was (87.67 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.43 B. | |
| About 30.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for GAEC Stock Analysis
When running GAEC Educacao's price analysis, check to measure GAEC Educacao's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy GAEC Educacao is operating at the current time. Most of GAEC Educacao's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of GAEC Educacao's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move GAEC Educacao's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of GAEC Educacao to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.