Applied Dna Sciences Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 50.94
| APDN Stock | USD 0.16 0.06 27.27% |
Applied |
Applied DNA Target Price Odds to finish over 50.94
The tendency of Applied Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 50.94 or more in 90 days |
| 0.16 | 90 days | 50.94 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Applied DNA to move over $ 50.94 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Applied DNA Sciences probability density function shows the probability of Applied Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Applied DNA Sciences price to stay between its current price of $ 0.16 and $ 50.94 at the end of the 90-day period is about 75.27 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.74 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Applied DNA will likely underperform. Additionally Applied DNA Sciences has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Applied DNA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Applied DNA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Applied DNA Sciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Applied DNA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Applied DNA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Applied DNA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Applied DNA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Applied DNA Sciences, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Applied DNA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -2.38 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.74 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.41 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.2 |
Applied DNA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Applied DNA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Applied DNA Sciences can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Applied DNA Sciences generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Applied DNA Sciences has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Applied DNA Sciences has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Applied DNA Sciences has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 13.37 M. Net Loss for the year was (9.95 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 5.05 M. | |
| Applied DNA Sciences currently holds about 4.68 M in cash with (6.22 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.36, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Applied DNA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Applied Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Applied DNA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Applied DNA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 653.8 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.2 M |
Applied DNA Technical Analysis
Applied DNA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Applied Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Applied DNA Sciences. In general, you should focus on analyzing Applied Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Applied DNA Predictive Forecast Models
Applied DNA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Applied DNA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Applied DNA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Applied DNA Sciences
Checking the ongoing alerts about Applied DNA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Applied DNA Sciences help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Applied DNA Sciences generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Applied DNA Sciences has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Applied DNA Sciences has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Applied DNA Sciences has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 13.37 M. Net Loss for the year was (9.95 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 5.05 M. | |
| Applied DNA Sciences currently holds about 4.68 M in cash with (6.22 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.36, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Check out Applied DNA Backtesting, Applied DNA Valuation, Applied DNA Correlation, Applied DNA Hype Analysis, Applied DNA Volatility, Applied DNA History as well as Applied DNA Performance. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Is Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Applied DNA. If investors know Applied will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Applied DNA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (5.53) | Revenue Per Share 2.202 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.73) | Return On Assets (0.57) | Return On Equity (0.76) |
The market value of Applied DNA Sciences is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Applied that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Applied DNA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Applied DNA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Applied DNA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Applied DNA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Applied DNA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Applied DNA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Applied DNA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.