Asiaplast Industries (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 471.56
| APLI Stock | IDR 545.00 10.00 1.87% |
Asiaplast |
Asiaplast Industries Target Price Odds to finish below 471.56
The tendency of Asiaplast Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 471.56 or more in 90 days |
| 545.00 | 90 days | 471.56 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Asiaplast Industries to drop to 471.56 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Asiaplast Industries Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Asiaplast Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Asiaplast Industries Tbk price to stay between 471.56 and its current price of 545.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 17.41 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Asiaplast Industries Tbk has a beta of -0.42. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Asiaplast Industries are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Asiaplast Industries Tbk is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Asiaplast Industries Tbk has an alpha of 1.0E-4, implying that it can generate a 5.8E-5 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Asiaplast Industries Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Asiaplast Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Asiaplast Industries Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Asiaplast Industries Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Asiaplast Industries is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Asiaplast Industries' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Asiaplast Industries Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Asiaplast Industries within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.000058 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.42 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 24.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Asiaplast Industries Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Asiaplast Industries for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Asiaplast Industries Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Asiaplast Industries generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Asiaplast Industries has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Asiaplast Industries has accumulated 45.11 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| About 87.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Asiaplast Industries Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Asiaplast Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Asiaplast Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Asiaplast Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.4 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 59.5 B |
Asiaplast Industries Technical Analysis
Asiaplast Industries' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Asiaplast Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Asiaplast Industries Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Asiaplast Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Asiaplast Industries Predictive Forecast Models
Asiaplast Industries' time-series forecasting models is one of many Asiaplast Industries' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Asiaplast Industries' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Asiaplast Industries Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Asiaplast Industries for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Asiaplast Industries Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Asiaplast Industries generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Asiaplast Industries has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Asiaplast Industries has accumulated 45.11 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| About 87.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Asiaplast Stock
Asiaplast Industries financial ratios help investors to determine whether Asiaplast Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Asiaplast with respect to the benefits of owning Asiaplast Industries security.