Asiaplast Industries (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 599.60

APLI Stock  IDR 540.00  10.00  1.82%   
Asiaplast Industries' future price is the expected price of Asiaplast Industries instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Asiaplast Industries Tbk performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Asiaplast Industries Backtesting, Asiaplast Industries Valuation, Asiaplast Industries Correlation, Asiaplast Industries Hype Analysis, Asiaplast Industries Volatility, Asiaplast Industries History as well as Asiaplast Industries Performance.
  
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Asiaplast Industries Target Price Odds to finish over 599.60

The tendency of Asiaplast Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over  599.60  or more in 90 days
 540.00 90 days 599.60 
about 10.6
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Asiaplast Industries to move over  599.60  or more in 90 days from now is about 10.6 (This Asiaplast Industries Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Asiaplast Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Asiaplast Industries Tbk price to stay between its current price of  540.00  and  599.60  at the end of the 90-day period is about 78.75 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Asiaplast Industries has a beta of 0.89. This suggests Asiaplast Industries Tbk market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Asiaplast Industries is expected to follow. Additionally Asiaplast Industries Tbk has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Asiaplast Industries Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Asiaplast Industries

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Asiaplast Industries Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
536.77540.00543.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
514.52517.75594.00
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
552.76555.99559.22
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
507.60544.38581.15
Details

Asiaplast Industries Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Asiaplast Industries is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Asiaplast Industries' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Asiaplast Industries Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Asiaplast Industries within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.14
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.89
σ
Overall volatility
23.90
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

Asiaplast Industries Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Asiaplast Industries for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Asiaplast Industries Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Asiaplast Industries generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Asiaplast Industries has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Asiaplast Industries has accumulated 45.11 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings
About 87.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Asiaplast Industries Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Asiaplast Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Asiaplast Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Asiaplast Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.4 B
Cash And Short Term Investments59.5 B

Asiaplast Industries Technical Analysis

Asiaplast Industries' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Asiaplast Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Asiaplast Industries Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Asiaplast Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Asiaplast Industries Predictive Forecast Models

Asiaplast Industries' time-series forecasting models is one of many Asiaplast Industries' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Asiaplast Industries' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Asiaplast Industries Tbk

Checking the ongoing alerts about Asiaplast Industries for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Asiaplast Industries Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Asiaplast Industries generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Asiaplast Industries has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Asiaplast Industries has accumulated 45.11 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings
About 87.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Other Information on Investing in Asiaplast Stock

Asiaplast Industries financial ratios help investors to determine whether Asiaplast Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Asiaplast with respect to the benefits of owning Asiaplast Industries security.