Arena Group Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.0
| AREN Stock | USD 1.42 0.16 12.70% |
Arena |
Arena Group Target Price Odds to finish below 1.0
The tendency of Arena Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 1.00 or more in 90 days |
| 1.42 | 90 days | 1.00 | about 43.46 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Arena Group to drop to $ 1.00 or more in 90 days from now is about 43.46 (This Arena Group Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Arena Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Arena Group Holdings price to stay between $ 1.00 and its current price of $1.42 at the end of the 90-day period is about 35.68 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Arena Group Holdings has a beta of -2.49. This suggests as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Arena Group Holdings are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Arena Group is expected to outperform its benchmark. In addition to that Arena Group Holdings has an alpha of 2.561, implying that it can generate a 2.56 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Arena Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Arena Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arena Group Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arena Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Arena Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Arena Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Arena Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Arena Group Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Arena Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 2.56 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -2.49 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.43 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Arena Group Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Arena Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Arena Group Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Arena Group Holdings is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Arena Group Holdings may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Arena Group Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Arena Group Holdings has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Arena Group Holdings currently holds 131.84 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.5, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Arena Group Holdings has a current ratio of 0.62, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Arena Group's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 244.2 M. Net Loss for the year was (55.58 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 88.01 M. | |
| Arena Group Holdings currently holds about 13.3 M in cash with (24.77 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.74. | |
| Arena Group Holdings has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 42.0% of Arena Group shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: The Arena Group announces NYSE acceptance of plan to regain compliance |
Arena Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Arena Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Arena Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arena Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 22.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.3 M |
Arena Group Technical Analysis
Arena Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Arena Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Arena Group Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Arena Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Arena Group Predictive Forecast Models
Arena Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Arena Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Arena Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Arena Group Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Arena Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Arena Group Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Arena Group Holdings is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Arena Group Holdings may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Arena Group Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Arena Group Holdings has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Arena Group Holdings currently holds 131.84 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.5, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Arena Group Holdings has a current ratio of 0.62, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Arena Group's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 244.2 M. Net Loss for the year was (55.58 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 88.01 M. | |
| Arena Group Holdings currently holds about 13.3 M in cash with (24.77 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.74. | |
| Arena Group Holdings has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 42.0% of Arena Group shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: The Arena Group announces NYSE acceptance of plan to regain compliance |
Check out Arena Group Backtesting, Arena Group Valuation, Arena Group Correlation, Arena Group Hype Analysis, Arena Group Volatility, Arena Group History as well as Arena Group Performance. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Is Movies & Entertainment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arena Group. If investors know Arena will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arena Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.36) | Revenue Per Share 9.104 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.20) | Return On Assets (0.12) |
The market value of Arena Group Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arena that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arena Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arena Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arena Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arena Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arena Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arena Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arena Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.