Amerigo Resources Stock Probability of Future OTC Stock Price Finishing Under 1.07
| ARREF Stock | USD 1.12 0.03 2.61% |
Amerigo |
Amerigo Resources Target Price Odds to finish below 1.07
The tendency of Amerigo OTC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 1.07 or more in 90 days |
| 1.12 | 90 days | 1.07 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Amerigo Resources to drop to $ 1.07 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Amerigo Resources probability density function shows the probability of Amerigo OTC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Amerigo Resources price to stay between $ 1.07 and its current price of $1.12 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.28 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Amerigo Resources has a beta of 0.39. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Amerigo Resources average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Amerigo Resources will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Amerigo Resources has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Amerigo Resources Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Amerigo Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amerigo Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amerigo Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Amerigo Resources Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Amerigo Resources is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Amerigo Resources' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Amerigo Resources, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Amerigo Resources within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Amerigo Resources Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Amerigo Resources for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Amerigo Resources can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Amerigo Resources generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Amerigo Resources may become a speculative penny stock | |
| About 23.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Amerigo Resources Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Amerigo OTC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Amerigo Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amerigo Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 173.5 M |
Amerigo Resources Technical Analysis
Amerigo Resources' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Amerigo OTC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Amerigo Resources. In general, you should focus on analyzing Amerigo OTC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Amerigo Resources Predictive Forecast Models
Amerigo Resources' time-series forecasting models is one of many Amerigo Resources' otc stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Amerigo Resources' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the otc stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Amerigo Resources
Checking the ongoing alerts about Amerigo Resources for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Amerigo Resources help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Amerigo Resources generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Amerigo Resources may become a speculative penny stock | |
| About 23.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Amerigo OTC Stock
Amerigo Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether Amerigo OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Amerigo with respect to the benefits of owning Amerigo Resources security.