Asm Pacific Technology Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 37.58
| ASMVY Stock | USD 30.29 1.32 4.18% |
Asm |
Asm Pacific Target Price Odds to finish below 37.58
The tendency of Asm Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 37.58 after 90 days |
| 30.29 | 90 days | 37.58 | over 95.43 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Asm Pacific to stay under $ 37.58 after 90 days from now is over 95.43 (This Asm Pacific Technology probability density function shows the probability of Asm Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Asm Pacific Technology price to stay between its current price of $ 30.29 and $ 37.58 at the end of the 90-day period is about 70.22 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Asm Pacific Technology has a beta of -0.19. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Asm Pacific are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Asm Pacific Technology is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Asm Pacific Technology has an alpha of 0.0242, implying that it can generate a 0.0242 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Asm Pacific Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Asm Pacific
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Asm Pacific Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Asm Pacific's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Asm Pacific Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Asm Pacific is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Asm Pacific's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Asm Pacific Technology, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Asm Pacific within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Asm Pacific Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Asm Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Asm Pacific's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Asm Pacific's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 136.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.9 B |
Asm Pacific Technical Analysis
Asm Pacific's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Asm Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Asm Pacific Technology. In general, you should focus on analyzing Asm Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Asm Pacific Predictive Forecast Models
Asm Pacific's time-series forecasting models is one of many Asm Pacific's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Asm Pacific's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Asm Pacific in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Asm Pacific's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Asm Pacific options trading.
Additional Tools for Asm Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Asm Pacific's price analysis, check to measure Asm Pacific's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Asm Pacific is operating at the current time. Most of Asm Pacific's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Asm Pacific's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Asm Pacific's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Asm Pacific to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.