Astrana Health Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 60.22
| ASTH Stock | 32.38 1.15 3.43% |
Astrana |
Astrana Health Target Price Odds to finish over 60.22
The tendency of Astrana Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 60.22 or more in 90 days |
| 32.38 | 90 days | 60.22 | about 11.19 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Astrana Health to move over 60.22 or more in 90 days from now is about 11.19 (This Astrana Health probability density function shows the probability of Astrana Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Astrana Health price to stay between its current price of 32.38 and 60.22 at the end of the 90-day period is about 84.95 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Astrana Health has a beta of 0.3. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Astrana Health average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Astrana Health will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Astrana Health has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Astrana Health Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Astrana Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Astrana Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Astrana Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Astrana Health Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Astrana Health is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Astrana Health's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Astrana Health, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Astrana Health within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.72 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.30 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.22 |
Astrana Health Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Astrana Health for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Astrana Health can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Astrana Health generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Astrana Health has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Astrana Health is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Astrana Health was previously known as Astrana Health and was traded on NASDAQ Exchange under the symbol AMEH. | |
| About 24.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Astrana Health sheds 12 percent this week, as yearly returns fall more in line with earnings growth |
Astrana Health Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Astrana Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Astrana Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Astrana Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 296.3 M |
Astrana Health Technical Analysis
Astrana Health's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Astrana Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Astrana Health. In general, you should focus on analyzing Astrana Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Astrana Health Predictive Forecast Models
Astrana Health's time-series forecasting models is one of many Astrana Health's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Astrana Health's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Astrana Health
Checking the ongoing alerts about Astrana Health for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Astrana Health help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Astrana Health generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Astrana Health has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Astrana Health is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Astrana Health was previously known as Astrana Health and was traded on NASDAQ Exchange under the symbol AMEH. | |
| About 24.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Astrana Health sheds 12 percent this week, as yearly returns fall more in line with earnings growth |
Check out Astrana Health Backtesting, Astrana Health Valuation, Astrana Health Correlation, Astrana Health Hype Analysis, Astrana Health Volatility, Astrana Health History as well as Astrana Health Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Astrana Stock please use our How to Invest in Astrana Health guide.You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Astrana Health. If investors know Astrana will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Astrana Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.30) | Earnings Share 1.3 | Revenue Per Share 36.415 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.375 | Return On Assets 0.0449 |
The market value of Astrana Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Astrana that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Astrana Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Astrana Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Astrana Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Astrana Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Astrana Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Astrana Health is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Astrana Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.