Autogrill SpA ADR Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 7.32
| ATGSYDelisted Stock | USD 8.25 0.00 0.00% |
Autogrill |
Autogrill SpA Target Price Odds to finish over 7.32
The tendency of Autogrill Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 7.32 in 90 days |
| 8.25 | 90 days | 7.32 | about 73.52 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Autogrill SpA to stay above $ 7.32 in 90 days from now is about 73.52 (This Autogrill SpA ADR probability density function shows the probability of Autogrill Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Autogrill SpA ADR price to stay between $ 7.32 and its current price of $8.25 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.32 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Autogrill SpA ADR has a beta of -0.51. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Autogrill SpA are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Autogrill SpA ADR is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Autogrill SpA ADR has an alpha of 0.4922, implying that it can generate a 0.49 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Autogrill SpA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Autogrill SpA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Autogrill SpA ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Autogrill SpA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Autogrill SpA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Autogrill SpA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Autogrill SpA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Autogrill SpA ADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Autogrill SpA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.49 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.51 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.70 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
Autogrill SpA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Autogrill SpA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Autogrill SpA ADR can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Autogrill SpA ADR is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Autogrill SpA ADR has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Autogrill SpA ADR has accumulated 544.24 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 2.35, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Autogrill SpA ADR has a current ratio of 0.7, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Autogrill SpA until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Autogrill SpA's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Autogrill SpA ADR sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Autogrill to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Autogrill SpA's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 2.88 B. Net Loss for the year was (37.85 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 683.68 M. |
Autogrill SpA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Autogrill Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Autogrill SpA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Autogrill SpA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 381.9 M |
Autogrill SpA Technical Analysis
Autogrill SpA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Autogrill Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Autogrill SpA ADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing Autogrill Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Autogrill SpA Predictive Forecast Models
Autogrill SpA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Autogrill SpA's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Autogrill SpA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Autogrill SpA ADR
Checking the ongoing alerts about Autogrill SpA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Autogrill SpA ADR help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Autogrill SpA ADR is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Autogrill SpA ADR has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Autogrill SpA ADR has accumulated 544.24 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 2.35, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Autogrill SpA ADR has a current ratio of 0.7, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Autogrill SpA until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Autogrill SpA's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Autogrill SpA ADR sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Autogrill to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Autogrill SpA's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 2.88 B. Net Loss for the year was (37.85 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 683.68 M. |
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in state. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Other Consideration for investing in Autogrill Pink Sheet
If you are still planning to invest in Autogrill SpA ADR check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Autogrill SpA's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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