Avance Gas Holding Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 4.53
| AVACF Stock | USD 6.75 0.08 1.17% |
Avance |
Avance Gas Target Price Odds to finish below 4.53
The tendency of Avance Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 4.53 or more in 90 days |
| 6.75 | 90 days | 4.53 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Avance Gas to drop to $ 4.53 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Avance Gas Holding probability density function shows the probability of Avance Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Avance Gas Holding price to stay between $ 4.53 and its current price of $6.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.81 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Avance Gas has a beta of 0.7. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Avance Gas average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Avance Gas Holding will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Avance Gas Holding has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Avance Gas Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Avance Gas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avance Gas Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Avance Gas' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Avance Gas Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Avance Gas is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Avance Gas' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Avance Gas Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Avance Gas within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.45 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.70 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.28 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Avance Gas Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Avance Gas for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Avance Gas Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Avance Gas Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Avance Gas Holding has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 84.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Avance Gas Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Avance Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Avance Gas' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Avance Gas' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 76.6 M |
Avance Gas Technical Analysis
Avance Gas' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Avance Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Avance Gas Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Avance Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Avance Gas Predictive Forecast Models
Avance Gas' time-series forecasting models is one of many Avance Gas' pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Avance Gas' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Avance Gas Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about Avance Gas for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Avance Gas Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Avance Gas Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Avance Gas Holding has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 84.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Avance Pink Sheet
Avance Gas financial ratios help investors to determine whether Avance Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Avance with respect to the benefits of owning Avance Gas security.