American States Water Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 79.02
| AWR Stock | USD 79.82 0.36 0.45% |
American |
American States Target Price Odds to finish below 79.02
The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 79.02 or more in 90 days |
| 79.82 | 90 days | 79.02 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American States to drop to $ 79.02 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This American States Water probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American States Water price to stay between $ 79.02 and its current price of $79.82 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon American States has a beta of 0.59. This suggests as returns on the market go up, American States average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American States Water will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally American States Water has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. American States Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for American States
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American States Water. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American States' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American States Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American States is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American States' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American States Water, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American States within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.59 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.58 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
American States Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American States for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American States Water can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| American States generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| American States Water has 917.88 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.99, which is OK given its current industry classification. American States Water has a current ratio of 0.36, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for American to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Over 81.0% of American States shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 2nd of December 2024 American States paid $ 0.4655 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: American States Water Co Announces Proposed Decision on Electric Rate Case |
American States Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American States' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American States' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 14.1 M |
American States Technical Analysis
American States' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American States Water. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
American States Predictive Forecast Models
American States' time-series forecasting models is one of many American States' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American States' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about American States Water
Checking the ongoing alerts about American States for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American States Water help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| American States generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| American States Water has 917.88 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.99, which is OK given its current industry classification. American States Water has a current ratio of 0.36, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for American to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Over 81.0% of American States shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 2nd of December 2024 American States paid $ 0.4655 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: American States Water Co Announces Proposed Decision on Electric Rate Case |
Additional Tools for American Stock Analysis
When running American States' price analysis, check to measure American States' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American States is operating at the current time. Most of American States' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American States' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American States' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American States to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.