Amrep Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 21.70
| AXR Stock | USD 36.42 0.72 2.02% |
AMREP |
AMREP Target Price Odds to finish below 21.70
The tendency of AMREP Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 21.70 or more in 90 days |
| 36.42 | 90 days | 21.70 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AMREP to drop to $ 21.70 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This AMREP probability density function shows the probability of AMREP Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AMREP price to stay between $ 21.70 and its current price of $36.42 at the end of the 90-day period is about 89.44 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon AMREP has a beta of 0.75. This suggests as returns on the market go up, AMREP average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AMREP will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AMREP has an alpha of 0.78, implying that it can generate a 0.78 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). AMREP Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for AMREP
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AMREP. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AMREP's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AMREP Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AMREP is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AMREP's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AMREP, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AMREP within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.78 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.75 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.83 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.19 |
AMREP Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AMREP for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AMREP can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AMREP appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| AMREP has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 45.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Amrep Corp Stock Dips Amid Real Estate Sector Movements |
AMREP Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AMREP Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AMREP's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AMREP's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 29.7 M |
AMREP Technical Analysis
AMREP's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AMREP Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AMREP. In general, you should focus on analyzing AMREP Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AMREP Predictive Forecast Models
AMREP's time-series forecasting models is one of many AMREP's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AMREP's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AMREP
Checking the ongoing alerts about AMREP for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AMREP help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AMREP appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| AMREP has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 45.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Amrep Corp Stock Dips Amid Real Estate Sector Movements |
Additional Tools for AMREP Stock Analysis
When running AMREP's price analysis, check to measure AMREP's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AMREP is operating at the current time. Most of AMREP's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AMREP's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AMREP's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AMREP to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.