BAG Films (India) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 15.47
| BAGFILMS | 11.55 0.34 2.86% |
BAG |
BAG Films Target Price Odds to finish over 15.47
The tendency of BAG Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 15.47 or more in 90 days |
| 11.55 | 90 days | 15.47 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of BAG Films to move over 15.47 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This BAG Films and probability density function shows the probability of BAG Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of BAG Films price to stay between its current price of 11.55 and 15.47 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.31 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon BAG Films has a beta of 0.6 suggesting as returns on the market go up, BAG Films average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding BAG Films and will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally BAG Films and has an alpha of 0.1421, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). BAG Films Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for BAG Films
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BAG Films. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.BAG Films Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. BAG Films is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the BAG Films' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BAG Films and, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of BAG Films within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.60 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.90 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
BAG Films Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of BAG Films for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for BAG Films can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| BAG Films had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| BAG Films has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 62.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: BAG Films Consolidated September 2024 Net Sales at Rs 34.47 crore, down 20.62 percent Y-o-Y - Moneycontrol |
BAG Films Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of BAG Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential BAG Films' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BAG Films' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 232.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 101.1 M |
BAG Films Technical Analysis
BAG Films' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. BAG Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of BAG Films and. In general, you should focus on analyzing BAG Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
BAG Films Predictive Forecast Models
BAG Films' time-series forecasting models is one of many BAG Films' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary BAG Films' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about BAG Films
Checking the ongoing alerts about BAG Films for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for BAG Films help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| BAG Films had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| BAG Films has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 62.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: BAG Films Consolidated September 2024 Net Sales at Rs 34.47 crore, down 20.62 percent Y-o-Y - Moneycontrol |
Other Information on Investing in BAG Stock
BAG Films financial ratios help investors to determine whether BAG Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in BAG with respect to the benefits of owning BAG Films security.