Bath Body Works Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 38.21
| BBWI Stock | USD 38.53 0.66 1.68% |
Bath |
Bath Body Target Price Odds to finish below 38.21
The tendency of Bath Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 38.21 or more in 90 days |
| 38.53 | 90 days | 38.21 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bath Body to drop to $ 38.21 or more in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Bath Body Works probability density function shows the probability of Bath Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Bath Body Works price to stay between $ 38.21 and its current price of $38.53 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Bath Body has a beta of 0.84 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Bath Body average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Bath Body Works will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Bath Body Works has an alpha of 0.4649, implying that it can generate a 0.46 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Bath Body Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Bath Body
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bath Body Works. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bath Body's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Bath Body Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bath Body is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bath Body's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bath Body Works, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bath Body within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.46 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.84 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.94 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
Bath Body Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Bath Body for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Bath Body Works can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Bath Body Works appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Bath Body Works, Inc.s Shares Bounce 31 percent But Its Business Still Trails The Market |
Bath Body Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Bath Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Bath Body's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bath Body's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 229 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Bath Body Technical Analysis
Bath Body's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Bath Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Bath Body Works. In general, you should focus on analyzing Bath Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Bath Body Predictive Forecast Models
Bath Body's time-series forecasting models is one of many Bath Body's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Bath Body's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Bath Body Works
Checking the ongoing alerts about Bath Body for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Bath Body Works help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Bath Body Works appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Bath Body Works, Inc.s Shares Bounce 31 percent But Its Business Still Trails The Market |
Check out Bath Body Backtesting, Bath Body Valuation, Bath Body Correlation, Bath Body Hype Analysis, Bath Body Volatility, Bath Body History as well as Bath Body Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Is Other Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bath Body. If investors know Bath will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bath Body listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.581 | Earnings Share 4.08 | Revenue Per Share 32.745 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) | Return On Assets 0.1585 |
The market value of Bath Body Works is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bath that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bath Body's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bath Body's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bath Body's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bath Body's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bath Body's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bath Body is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bath Body's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.