Bright Scholar Education Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 2.04
| BEDU Stock | USD 1.85 0.07 3.65% |
Bright |
Bright Scholar Target Price Odds to finish below 2.04
The tendency of Bright Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 2.04 after 90 days |
| 1.85 | 90 days | 2.04 | about 90.96 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bright Scholar to stay under $ 2.04 after 90 days from now is about 90.96 (This Bright Scholar Education probability density function shows the probability of Bright Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Bright Scholar Education price to stay between its current price of $ 1.85 and $ 2.04 at the end of the 90-day period is about 79.79 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Bright Scholar Education has a beta of -0.44 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Bright Scholar are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Bright Scholar Education is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Bright Scholar Education has an alpha of 0.0697, implying that it can generate a 0.0697 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Bright Scholar Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Bright Scholar
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bright Scholar Education. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bright Scholar's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Bright Scholar Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bright Scholar is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bright Scholar's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bright Scholar Education, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bright Scholar within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.44 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Bright Scholar Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Bright Scholar for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Bright Scholar Education can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Bright Scholar generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Bright Scholar may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Bright Scholar has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Bright Scholar has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Bright Scholar Education currently holds 1.51 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.43, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Bright Scholar Education has a current ratio of 0.87, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Bright Scholar's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 1.76 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.03 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 597.33 M. | |
| About 17.0% of Bright Scholar shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Bright Scholar Files Annual Report on Form 20-F for Fiscal Year 2024 |
Bright Scholar Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Bright Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Bright Scholar's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bright Scholar's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 493.4 M |
Bright Scholar Technical Analysis
Bright Scholar's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Bright Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Bright Scholar Education. In general, you should focus on analyzing Bright Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Bright Scholar Predictive Forecast Models
Bright Scholar's time-series forecasting models is one of many Bright Scholar's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Bright Scholar's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Bright Scholar Education
Checking the ongoing alerts about Bright Scholar for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Bright Scholar Education help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Bright Scholar generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Bright Scholar may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Bright Scholar has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Bright Scholar has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Bright Scholar Education currently holds 1.51 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.43, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Bright Scholar Education has a current ratio of 0.87, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Bright Scholar's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 1.76 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.03 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 597.33 M. | |
| About 17.0% of Bright Scholar shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Bright Scholar Files Annual Report on Form 20-F for Fiscal Year 2024 |
Additional Tools for Bright Stock Analysis
When running Bright Scholar's price analysis, check to measure Bright Scholar's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bright Scholar is operating at the current time. Most of Bright Scholar's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bright Scholar's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bright Scholar's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bright Scholar to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.