Biglari Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 263.92
| BH Stock | USD 250.68 6.98 2.86% |
Biglari |
Biglari Holdings Target Price Odds to finish over 263.92
The tendency of Biglari Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 263.92 or more in 90 days |
| 250.68 | 90 days | 263.92 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Biglari Holdings to move over $ 263.92 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Biglari Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Biglari Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Biglari Holdings price to stay between its current price of $ 250.68 and $ 263.92 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.15 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon Biglari Holdings has a beta of 0.61 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Biglari Holdings average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Biglari Holdings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Biglari Holdings has an alpha of 0.5333, implying that it can generate a 0.53 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Biglari Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Biglari Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Biglari Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Biglari Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Biglari Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Biglari Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Biglari Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Biglari Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.53 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.61 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 26.89 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.20 |
Biglari Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Biglari Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Biglari Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 83.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Sardar Biglaris Strategic Acquisition in Biglari Holdings Inc. |
Biglari Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Biglari Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Biglari Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Biglari Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 290 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 119.9 M |
Biglari Holdings Technical Analysis
Biglari Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Biglari Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Biglari Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Biglari Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Biglari Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Biglari Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Biglari Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Biglari Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Biglari Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Biglari Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Biglari Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 83.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Sardar Biglaris Strategic Acquisition in Biglari Holdings Inc. |
Check out Biglari Holdings Backtesting, Biglari Holdings Valuation, Biglari Holdings Correlation, Biglari Holdings Hype Analysis, Biglari Holdings Volatility, Biglari Holdings History as well as Biglari Holdings Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Biglari Stock please use our How to Invest in Biglari Holdings guide.You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Biglari Holdings. If investors know Biglari will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Biglari Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.64) | Earnings Share 36.45 | Revenue Per Share 1.3 K | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) | Return On Assets 0.0179 |
The market value of Biglari Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Biglari that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Biglari Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Biglari Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Biglari Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Biglari Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Biglari Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Biglari Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Biglari Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.