BLUESCOPE STEEL (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.4
| BH5 Stock | 13.20 0.30 2.33% |
BLUESCOPE |
BLUESCOPE STEEL Target Price Odds to finish below 12.4
The tendency of BLUESCOPE Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 12.40 or more in 90 days |
| 13.20 | 90 days | 12.40 | about 17.05 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of BLUESCOPE STEEL to drop to 12.40 or more in 90 days from now is about 17.05 (This BLUESCOPE STEEL probability density function shows the probability of BLUESCOPE Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of BLUESCOPE STEEL price to stay between 12.40 and its current price of 13.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 52.24 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.41 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, BLUESCOPE STEEL will likely underperform. Additionally BLUESCOPE STEEL has an alpha of 0.0231, implying that it can generate a 0.0231 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). BLUESCOPE STEEL Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for BLUESCOPE STEEL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BLUESCOPE STEEL. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BLUESCOPE STEEL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
BLUESCOPE STEEL Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. BLUESCOPE STEEL is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the BLUESCOPE STEEL's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BLUESCOPE STEEL, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of BLUESCOPE STEEL within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.55 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
BLUESCOPE STEEL Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of BLUESCOPE Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential BLUESCOPE STEEL's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BLUESCOPE STEEL's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 469.1 M | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0139 |
BLUESCOPE STEEL Technical Analysis
BLUESCOPE STEEL's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. BLUESCOPE Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of BLUESCOPE STEEL. In general, you should focus on analyzing BLUESCOPE Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
BLUESCOPE STEEL Predictive Forecast Models
BLUESCOPE STEEL's time-series forecasting models is one of many BLUESCOPE STEEL's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary BLUESCOPE STEEL's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards BLUESCOPE STEEL in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, BLUESCOPE STEEL's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from BLUESCOPE STEEL options trading.
Additional Tools for BLUESCOPE Stock Analysis
When running BLUESCOPE STEEL's price analysis, check to measure BLUESCOPE STEEL's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BLUESCOPE STEEL is operating at the current time. Most of BLUESCOPE STEEL's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BLUESCOPE STEEL's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BLUESCOPE STEEL's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BLUESCOPE STEEL to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.