Vanguard Long Term Bond Etf Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Under 70.99

BLV Etf  USD 71.65  0.49  0.68%   
Vanguard Long's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Vanguard Long Term Bond. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Vanguard Long based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Vanguard Long Term Bond over a specific time period. For example, BLV Option Call 20-12-2024 72 is a CALL option contract on Vanguard Long's common stock with a strick price of 72.0 expiring on 2024-12-20. The contract was last traded on 2024-11-27 at 14:17:29 for $0.79 and, as of today, has 9 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.2, and an ask price of $0.45. The implied volatility as of the 11th of December 2024 is 9.0. View All Vanguard options

Closest to current price Vanguard long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Vanguard Long's future price is the expected price of Vanguard Long instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Vanguard Long Term Bond performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Vanguard Long Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Vanguard Long Correlation, Vanguard Long Hype Analysis, Vanguard Long Volatility, Vanguard Long History as well as Vanguard Long Performance.
  
Please specify Vanguard Long's target price for which you would like Vanguard Long odds to be computed.

Vanguard Long Target Price Odds to finish below 70.99

The tendency of Vanguard Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 70.99  or more in 90 days
 71.65 90 days 70.99 
about 22.13
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vanguard Long to drop to $ 70.99  or more in 90 days from now is about 22.13 (This Vanguard Long Term Bond probability density function shows the probability of Vanguard Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vanguard Long Term price to stay between $ 70.99  and its current price of $71.65 at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.29 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Vanguard Long Term Bond has a beta of -0.0554 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Vanguard Long are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Vanguard Long Term Bond is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Vanguard Long Term Bond has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Vanguard Long Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Vanguard Long

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard Long Term. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
71.2371.9472.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
67.8068.5179.12
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
71.7872.4973.20
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
71.7772.1672.54
Details

Vanguard Long Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vanguard Long is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vanguard Long's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vanguard Long Term Bond, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vanguard Long within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.06
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.06
σ
Overall volatility
1.81
Ir
Information ratio -0.25

Vanguard Long Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vanguard Long for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vanguard Long Term can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Vanguard Long Term generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Latest headline from news.google.com: BLV ETF Outflow Alert - Nasdaq
Vanguard Long Term generated five year return of -2.0%
This fund holds about 9.19% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities

Vanguard Long Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vanguard Etf often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vanguard Long's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vanguard Long's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.

Vanguard Long Technical Analysis

Vanguard Long's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vanguard Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vanguard Long Term Bond. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vanguard Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Vanguard Long Predictive Forecast Models

Vanguard Long's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vanguard Long's etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vanguard Long's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Vanguard Long Term

Checking the ongoing alerts about Vanguard Long for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vanguard Long Term help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Vanguard Long Term generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Latest headline from news.google.com: BLV ETF Outflow Alert - Nasdaq
Vanguard Long Term generated five year return of -2.0%
This fund holds about 9.19% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities
When determining whether Vanguard Long Term is a strong investment it is important to analyze Vanguard Long's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Vanguard Long's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Vanguard Etf, refer to the following important reports:
The market value of Vanguard Long Term is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vanguard that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vanguard Long's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vanguard Long's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vanguard Long's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vanguard Long's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vanguard Long's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vanguard Long is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vanguard Long's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.