Braskem SA (Brazil) Probability of Future Preferred Stock Price Finishing Under 11.61
| BRKM5 Preferred Stock | BRL 12.82 1.59 11.03% |
Braskem |
Braskem SA Target Price Odds to finish below 11.61
The tendency of Braskem Preferred Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 11.61 or more in 90 days |
| 12.82 | 90 days | 11.61 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Braskem SA to drop to R$ 11.61 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Braskem SA probability density function shows the probability of Braskem Preferred Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Braskem SA price to stay between R$ 11.61 and its current price of R$12.82 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.09 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Braskem SA has a beta of 0.79 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Braskem SA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Braskem SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Braskem SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Braskem SA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Braskem SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Braskem SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Braskem SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Braskem SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Braskem SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Braskem SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Braskem SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.56 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.79 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.2 |
Braskem SA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Braskem SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Braskem SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Braskem SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Braskem SA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Braskem SA has accumulated 48.4 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 555.0, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Braskem SA has a current ratio of 0.91, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Braskem SA until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Braskem SA's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Braskem SA sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Braskem to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Braskem SA's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 45.0% of Braskem SA shares are held by company insiders |
Braskem SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Braskem Preferred Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Braskem SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Braskem SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 797.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 12.2 B |
Braskem SA Technical Analysis
Braskem SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Braskem Preferred Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Braskem SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Braskem Preferred Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Braskem SA Predictive Forecast Models
Braskem SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Braskem SA's preferred stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Braskem SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the preferred stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Braskem SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Braskem SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Braskem SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Braskem SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Braskem SA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Braskem SA has accumulated 48.4 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 555.0, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Braskem SA has a current ratio of 0.91, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Braskem SA until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Braskem SA's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Braskem SA sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Braskem to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Braskem SA's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 45.0% of Braskem SA shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Braskem Preferred Stock Analysis
When running Braskem SA's price analysis, check to measure Braskem SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Braskem SA is operating at the current time. Most of Braskem SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Braskem SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Braskem SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Braskem SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.