Constellation Brands (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 218.43
| CB1A Stock | EUR 218.60 0.00 0.00% |
Constellation |
Constellation Brands Target Price Odds to finish below 218.43
The tendency of Constellation Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 218.43 or more in 90 days |
| 218.60 | 90 days | 218.43 | about 17.29 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Constellation Brands to drop to € 218.43 or more in 90 days from now is about 17.29 (This Constellation Brands probability density function shows the probability of Constellation Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Constellation Brands price to stay between € 218.43 and its current price of €218.6 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Constellation Brands has a beta of -0.11 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Constellation Brands are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Constellation Brands is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Constellation Brands has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Constellation Brands Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Constellation Brands
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Constellation Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Constellation Brands Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Constellation Brands is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Constellation Brands' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Constellation Brands, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Constellation Brands within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.91 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Constellation Brands Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Constellation Brands for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Constellation Brands can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Constellation Brands generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Constellation Brands has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 8.82 B. Net Loss for the year was (40.4 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 4.71 B. | |
| Over 76.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Constellation Brands Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Constellation Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Constellation Brands' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Constellation Brands' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 187.6 M |
Constellation Brands Technical Analysis
Constellation Brands' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Constellation Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Constellation Brands. In general, you should focus on analyzing Constellation Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Constellation Brands Predictive Forecast Models
Constellation Brands' time-series forecasting models is one of many Constellation Brands' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Constellation Brands' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Constellation Brands
Checking the ongoing alerts about Constellation Brands for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Constellation Brands help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Constellation Brands generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Constellation Brands has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 8.82 B. Net Loss for the year was (40.4 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 4.71 B. | |
| Over 76.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Other Information on Investing in Constellation Stock
Constellation Brands financial ratios help investors to determine whether Constellation Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Constellation with respect to the benefits of owning Constellation Brands security.